Sunday, February 5, 2012

Back to the weather blog

figured what the hell..lets get back to it..I'll try to update it daily..COLD AND DRY THIS WEEK

Nothing much to talk about at least thru Friday..+PNA ridge in the west and big PV in eastern Canada..btw the biggest PV in that location all winter..to tell you something about this very warm winter in the east as shown in the 120 hr GFS..look at that short wave in the Baja of California..is that a weekend storm?
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moving ahead ..it is as shown by the 7 day GFS

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However 0z Euro shows nothing along with the 6z GFS which loses it



so for snowlovers the disaster continues..any hope past day 10?

There are hints of Greenland blocking..-NAO on GFS and it's ensembles past day 10..again there have been many false alarms this winter so I look at past day 10 with a grain of salt

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

A great change...beautiful summer weather today..more heat late this week but nothing like last week

Yes after this break from the hot summer of 2011..heat should return later this week into the weekend..but nothing like we just experienced..low 90's to wrap up the month of July..4 day euro for Saturday morning..notice the red in the 850 temps

                                                                   

next week looks like more very warm and humid weather...8 day Euro as midwest bakes again

                                                                            

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Hot and humid weekend..low 90's Sunday..front to bring down temps for 4th

It will be you typical 4th of July weekend..sunshine with increasing humidity..Euro and GFS now agree on a hot Saturday and especially Sunday..here are 850 temps on Euro on Sunday evening

                                                                               
Will there be any rain..could be some scattered showers on Sunday afternoon as front approaches
GFS 90hr

                                                                                       image of MSLP 1000 - 500mb

4th will be very warm but less humid with passage of weak front..July 4th Euro

                                        
later next week looks to be very warm dry and seasonable..168 Euro

                                                                  

Monday, June 27, 2011

After some showers Tuesday night..warm week followed by heat for the weekend?..how long though?

Everybody has the holiday weekend on their minds..we all would like typical 4th weather..sunny and hot..well this morning Euro agrees..the weekend will be Sunny hoy and humid..with 90's..Sunday 0z 850 temps
                                                                       
                                                                    

and continues into the 4th


However GFS this morning totally different..I mean totally..big Upper low in eastern Canada

                                                             image of 500mb Vort, Ht
                                                                            
However GFS does heat things up Saturday into part of Sunday..but it is very brief


With the Euro model it becomes an old fashioned heatwave..hot thru day 10!

                                                                                  

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Major Heat ridge to develop in the Plains early next week..doesn't make it east as a cold front comes thru by midweek..ridge moves east on July 4th weekend..hot and humid,but right now it looks brief

After a nice weekend with some sun and seasonable temps..the Plains will be sizzlin next week with temps over the century mark in many spots..for us..looks like a weakness will move over the ridge as a cold front and stop the heat from advancing with showers and storms..shown here in the 500 heights GFS map 114 hr

                                                                          image of 500mb Vort, Ht

Then the heat makes a comeback..and some of it spreads east for the July 4th weekend..Saturday and Sunday look hot and humid temps in the 90's..here's Euro 850 temps for Sunday morning

                                                                            
Front comes thru on the 4th and the 90's are bye bye...right now heatwave seems brief

                                                                         

Friday, June 24, 2011

Weekend looks nice dry and seasonable,,MAJOR HEAT RIDGE DEVELOPS IN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK..does it reach us?

After some thunderstorms late today, some which may be severe,cold front comes thru..beautiful summer weekend with sunshine low humidity and temps in the 80's both days..now for next week..torrid heat will develop in the plains and move to the midwest by the middle of next week..over 100 degrees temps for this area..ok where does it go?..it will stay there for a while..GFS does push a cold front thru on Tuesday night..with showers and storms  120 hr surface
image of MSLP 1000 - 500mb
                                                          
Hot weather finally makes it here..not the brunt..but temps in the 90's with increasing humidity for the 4th of July weekend as shown here in the 8 day Euro

                                                                                      

by next Monday another front could approach to keep the brutal heat away 10 day euro 850 temps


                                                                       

GFS by July 4th want to develop a ring of fire over the central states..with us on the eastern boundry
 
                                                                                    image of MSLP 1000 - 500mb

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

SLOW cold front inches it's way across the country..warm and humid flow..weekend looks nice..possible heatwave for the 4th of July?




At this time of year sometimes a cold front could take a week to travel 500 miles..and that's sort of what we are dealing with this week..On the warm side of the front, it's gonna be warm,humid and tropical with showers and thunderstorms that could pop up any time..some even severe..most likely time would be late afternoon or early evening..expect sunhine too..FINALLY front comes thru late Friday as 72 hr GFS shows

                                                                            image of MSLP 1000 - 500mb

Weekend for now looks dry and seasonable..there could be a hit or miss shower..96 hr GFS

                                                                                           image of MSLP 1000 - 500mb

And now the big question as we head into July..one thing is certain...BIG HEAT RIDGE will develop in the plains and midwest..temps nearing or getting over 100..the heat will expand..will it get this far..well the 10 day Euro says it's getting close  850 temps..check out the heat in the midwest!

                                                                                               

GFS ensembles for the 4th say yea..the heat could make it by the 4th into the east..however a few members are now saying hold off!